1st Test: India v. Australia: India has 20-80 Chance!

On the final day of play, I expect a 20-80 chance for India to win the first test against the guests Aussies. Aussies are leading by 263 runs with 5 wickets in hand. Though this is the last recognized batting pair, even if one gets out and the other stays in the crease till they declare, Aussies would put aroudn 350 on the board.

The pitch has lot of cracks with uneven bounce. This would make batting difficult on the last day. So, even 250 would be difficult to chase. It depends on how Sehwag play the 2nd innings and how long he stays in the crease.

Options favoring Australia:

Option 1: Watson and Haddin stay for the first hour and score 4 runs an over for the first 10 overs and 6 runs for the next 5 overs. In the 15 overs, they score 70 and set a target of 334. This would allow India to play 70-75 overs with a chance to chase the target. This would give both the teams a chance, but more to Aussies than India considering the pitch condition.

Option 2: Australia score another 100 runs to be on the safe side and take the over all lead to 370. To reach this target, they have to play till lunch. This would mean, India has to chase 370 in 60 overs at a rate of around 6 runs per over. If India lose Sehwag early, India will not try for a win. It means either it is a draw or Aussy winning.

Option 3: Play till target is set to 400, whch means they have to score 137 runs on day 5. This would require at least 40 overs--playing after lunch. India will have to negotiate another 45-50 overs to make the first test draw. This is the poor option and I hope Ricky won't pick it.

Options favoring India:

Option 1: Take couple of quick wickets in the morning and put pressure on the remaining batsman. Two quick wickets before than add another 25 runs. Bundle Australia to less than 225 and chase 300.

Option 2: Depends on how long Sehwag stays in the crease. The longer he stays, more the chances for India. The way he bats, he can turn the game on India's favor. He should not play bad shots chasing wide balls.

Option 3: Have the fast bowlers bowl the first hour. This means, they cannot bowl more than 13 overs. In 13 overs, even if Australia score 40 runs, it means, they will be less than 300. Ponting would not be comfortable considering the previous records and the chance against Sehwag.

Let us see what happens! Good luck India and Australia!